Long contracts in a short-contract industry
The thesis
What the consensus is missing
Sources and catalysts
Exit triggers
- ✕Contract backlog shrinks two quarters in a row.
- ✕Gross margin below 28% with no explanation from the company.
Devil's advocate
“A long fixed-price contract becomes a trap if inflation comes back.”
Portfolio manager: partly accepted. 60% of contracts are indexed to IPCA inflation. Conviction down from 8 to 7.
Publication
The Portfolio Manager
Signed by the model in the seat










